‘No Time To Die’, Daniel Craig’s Final Bond Film, Targeting $60M Domestic Opening – Box Office

This is where tracking spotted Daniel Craig's swan song as 007, and as we continually wrote, if Bond was going to overperform, it would mean that an overabundance of older moviegoers (45+) came out. Bond inherently is a property that skews older, and not younger like the Marvel properties. Even though advance ticket sales were outpacing Venom: Let There Be Carnage, in the pandemic era all box office forecasting has been thrown off course. That, in addition to the fact that in general, pandemic moviegoers make their decisions to go to the theater largely that day, not in advance. CNBC brazenly, and incorrectly, declared that No Time to Die was poised to make $100M at the domestic B.O., and that number was never in any rival studio or MGM/United Artist Releasing's calculations.
came from foreign, 73% for Skyfall, 71% for Quantum of Solace, and 73% for Casino Royale. I hear the Imax holds in offshore markets are fantastic: ~-20% on Scandinavia, -30% in the UK, and -20% in Singapore and Taiwan. Seventy-seven percent of Spectre's global B.O. Nancy will have an update soon on how No Time to Die is doing this weekend. –Bond always makes his lion's share abroad, and many are very encouraged and thrilled by the pic's offshore estimated tally through last week of $150M.
The pic's first day (plus previews) is ahead of Mission: Impossible 6's opening day ($22.8M) and Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation ($20.3M). –No Time to Die's opening day is the fourth-best among the Craig titles, behind Skyfall's $32.7M, Spectre's $27.4M, and Quantum of Solace's $27M.
5.) The Many Saints of Newark (NL) 3,181 theaters Fri $420K (-79%), 3-day $1.5M (-68%), Total: $7.5M/Wk 2
No Time to Die clocked an 81% positive score on PostTrak, and a 62% definite recommend. Males came out at 64%, with 57% over 35. It's higher than Quantum of Solace, the lowest-graded of the Craig movies at B-, yet under Skyfall, which landed an A. –The latest Bond gets an A- CinemaScore, which is the same as Spectre, Casino Royale, and even Pierce Brosnan's finale as Bond, Die Another Day. The movie played best on the coasts, and saw Imax and PLFs delivering close to 40% of its ticket sales to date. Fifty-two percent were Caucasian, 17% Latino and Hispanic, 13% Black, and 18% Asian/other.
While time never slowed down box office for the latest Star Wars or Avengers movies, it does play into whether or not the older folks come out. Comscore/Screen Engine shows that 37% of No Time to Die's ticket-buyers were over 45, proportionally a higher share than Spectre's 29%. –This is the longest Bond ever at 2 hours and 43 minutes.
Saturday AM: The wait is over, as the 25th Bond finally hit US movie screens yesterday, grossing $23.3M, including $6.3M in previews, on its way to a weekend of $60M at 4,407 theaters.
Quantum of Solace and Spectre are the least favored by critics at 64% and 63%, respectively. Among Craig's Bond canon, No Time to Die is third-best-reviewed at 84% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes after Casino Royale's 94%, and Skyfall's 92%. As we reported Thursday, the 25th Bond's delayed brand promo campaign, which includes Aston Martin, Jaguar Land Rover, Chopard, Triumph motorcycles and more, is delivering $150M in cross-ad value. That doesn't include global P&A spend, which is well north of $150M, I understand.
Casino Royale had over a 4x multiple off its domestic opening, Skyfall 3.4x, and Spectre close to 3x. Second weekend holds on previous Craig Bond pics were -52% on Spectre and -53% on Skyfall. -Bond movies are a slow burn at the box office, and known for their legs.
The docu is 98% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. Greenwich Entertainment has Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi's NatGeo feature The Rescue in eight markets and five screens. The pic, about the Thai Cave rescue, did around $25K on Friday, and could do around $81K for the opening weekend, for a notable pandemic $16,2K per screen. I hear the pic did a great $12,9K at the Angelika in NYC.
The movie, which debuted In Certain Regard at Cannes and has 88% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, follows a childless couple in rural Iceland who make an alarming discovery one day in their sheep barn. On the plus side, it's a number that's ahead of the $1M debut of Focus Features' The Card Counter, which opened to $1M at 580; that pic only legging out to $2.6M. Booked at 583 theaters, the pic chalked up a $415K Friday on its way to an estimated $1.1M opening. Busting into the top 10 this weekend is A24's horror-fantasy Lamb, from Valdimar Jóhannsson and starring Noomi Rapace. They soon face the consequences of defying the will of nature. On the downside, I hear the core runs in NY, LA and Boston were halfway decent.
Right there that speaks volumes about the state of moviegoing, and the expanded marketplace. The first Venom saw a second weekend decline of -56% of $35M. Sony's Venom: Let There Be Carnage took in $8.85M on Friday, -76% from a week ago, on its way to a $31.1M second weekend, -65% for a running total by EOD Sunday of $140.8M, which, compared to the first Venom's ten-day running total, is just -1% behind; which is really great.
Friday AM: United Artist Releasing/MGM/Eon's No Time to Die clocked $6.3 million from Thursday box office previews that began at 4 p.m., making it the best Bond domestic preview number ever — 19% ahead of Spectre's $5.25M six years ago.
2.) Venom: Let There Be Carnage (Sony) 4,225 theaters, $8.85M (-76%) 3-day $31.1M (-65%)/Total $140.8M/Wk 2
Other things to know about Bond:
The figure also exceeds the preview nights of previous Daniel Craig 007 movies Skyfall ($4.6M off midnight shows) and Quantum of Solace ($2.5M off 8 p.m. showtimes).
4.) Shang-Chi (Dis) 2,800 (-655) theaters Fri $1.17M (-28%)/3-day $4.25M (-30%), Total: $212.5M/Wk 6
It was never expected to be a Marvel movie, and many look back at Skyfall as an anomaly, given how it truly tapped into Bond's past in a way that no other title in the franchise did. Rival distribution brass aren't throwing any shade on No Time to Die's opening, even though it's the third-best, currently behind Skyfall ($88.3M) and Spectre ($70.4M); in fact, they're thrilled. The multiple release date changes on Bond and the publicity of the film being Craig's last in the tuxedo certainly hyped up box office expectations, but understand that this was always IP intended for older moviegoers.
Overseas box office for No Time to Die to date is estimated to be north of $150M via a majority of Universal and a handful of MGM territories. Anything higher stateside relies on a significant amount of walk-up business by older males, but the pic's advance ticket sales on Fandango already are the best for Bond and ahead of Venom 2. Conservative estimates for No Time to Die, which was delayed 19 months due to Covid, are in the $55M-$60M range in U.S. and Canada and $150M worldwide for its second global weekend, eyeing a potential running grand total of $300M. The top openings for Craig's bond films are Skyfall ($88.3M), Spectre ($70.4M), Quantum of Solace ($67.5M) and Casino Royale ($40.8M).
Spectre saw an audience that was 29% over 45 and 15% over 55. While No Time to Die's number is lower than last Thursday's $11.6M charted by Venom: Let There Be Carnage (the second-best preview night during the pandemic after Black Widow's $13.2M), note that Venom skewed more broadly with Hispanic and Latino audiences and younger. Bond is dependent on older adult audiences, and should they show up this weekend, the pic will over-index. As we previously reported, NRG has observed that the Covid comfort levels for the older moviegoing demo have improved.
On opening day, 22% of patrons saw No Time to Die in Large Format vs. Over 400k came out during pre-release shows. Last weekend's Venom: Let There Be Carnage had 24% more seats in Large Format and 17% more overall next to No Time to Die, which is also on account of the Sony/Marvel title's shorter run-time. EntTelligence reports that approximately 4.5M patrons are estimated to see No Time to Die this weekend. Venom 2's opening day which saw 26% from those auditoriums.
1.) No Time to Die (UAR) 4,407 theaters Fri $23.3M/3-day $60M/Wk 1
‘No Time To Die’ Review: Daniel Craig Delivers A Thrilling And Emotional Exit To His James Bond
3.) Addams Family 2 (UAR) 4,207 theaters Fri $2.77M (-51%), 3-day $9.8M (-43%), Total: $31M/Wk 2
Sony, which cedes its Venom 2 Imax and PLF screens on to Bond in the States, is seeing a first week for the Marvel sequel of $109.7M after a $3.4M Thursday at 4,225 theaters. Venom 2 is expected to make around $36M in Weekend 2 stateside for a 60% decline.” />
"In an October where Venom 2 can open to $90M, then Bond to $60M, Halloween Kills to $40M, and Dune to $30M+, that's fantastic," said one non-MGM suit to me yesterday. That's the wheelhouse for these older-leaning spy action films. Consider the fact that No Time to Die's opening is right around where Mission: Impossible – Fallout ($61.2M) and Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation ($55.5M) opened stateside. Again, Monday morning isn't a time for streamers to take a victory lap: Moviegoing is waking up, especially coming off of last weekend.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *